BIG-12 Primer

For my third installment of my annual college football predictions I bring you the BIG-12! I believe there are two, maybe three, teams that can make the college football playoff out of this league this year. However, I believe the BIG-12 will be the one conference out of the BIG 5 conferences that will be left out of the playoff. I do not see a team going undefeated out of the BIG-12 this year and I think it will take and undefeated team to make the playoff. I rank the BIG-12 in a tie for 3rd with the ACC as far as my conference rankings go, and my ACC primer will be coming shortly.

Projected Final Standings
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Baylor
4. West Virginia
5. TCU
6. Texas Tech
7. Kansas State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Kansas
10. Iowa State

Quarterback
No surprise here as the #1 quarterback unit goes to the Baylor Bears. Bryce Petty is returning and brings 4,627 yards and 35 TD’s along with him. Although Baylor doesn’t have much talent at the position, the production returning for this unit was just too much to overcome by any of the other Big-12 teams. The Sooners were a close second in this category.

Running-back
Ranking 1st in my production metrics as well as my talent indicator is none other than the Texas Longhorns! Even factoring in the dismissal of Bergeron the Longhorns return the most ground production out of the entire league with 1,836 yards coming back. Former 5 star recruit Malcolm Brown will carry the load and look to add upon his 904 yards a season ago! Coming in a distant second in this category is Iowa State.

Offensive-Line
Following in line with the running-back unit, Texas also boasts the #1 offensive line in the BIG-12! The Longhorns return three starters across the front line but the talent of offensive lineman on this roster is astonishing. First off, 3 out of the 5 projected starters are former 4 star recruits. Sitting on the bench patiently awaiting their turn to rock some noggins are 7…….I repeat…. 7, former 4 star recruits and one 5 star stud! The talent on this offensive line unit compares with any in the country.

Tight-End
The best tight-end unit in the BIG-12 belongs to the Kansas Jayhawks! Returning starter Jimmay Mundine returns 241 yards and 5 TDs with him. Jimmay also played high school ball in the south which gives him an extra point or two in my talent indicator. Running a very close second in this category is the Iowa Hawkeyes!

Wide-Receiver
The Baylor Bears have the best receiving core in the BIG-12! The return of All-Conference receiver Antwan Goodley makes this a formidable unit against any secondary in the country. The Bears return a total of 3,420 yards and 27 TDs! With Bryce Petty slinging the taters, this unit should put up playstation like numbers all year long! Oklahoma came in a close second in this category.

Defensive Line
The Oklahoma Sooners boast the #1 defensive-line in both my production metrics as well as my talent indicator! This unit is anchored by returning All-Conference DE Charles Tapper, and he’ll be tap-tap-tapping all year long! The unit returns 132 tackles, 15.5 sacks, and should terrorize QBs all season long. Texas came in a close second in this category.

Linebackers
The best linebacker core in the BIG-12 belongs to the Texas Longhorns. The Horns return all 3 starters from a year ago, 237 tackles, and 2 INTs! Two starters were former 4 star recruits and the anchor in the middle, Steve Edmunds, is a former 5 star recruit! Not to mention, the Horns have four more former 4 star recruits sitting on the bench as well as one other former 5 star! Needless to say, this unit is loaded with experience and talent! Kansas came in a distant second in this category!

Cornerbacks
The best cornerbacks in the BIG-12 reside in Morgantown, WV! The Eeers return both starters from a year ago and should make it very difficult for opposing receivers to create space! This unit returns 122 tackles and 3 INTs. Second place, narrowly, goes to Texas.

Safety
The Texas Christian Horn Frogs have the best secondary in the BIG-12! The Frogs return both starters from a year ago in Sam Carter, and Chris Hackett and yes…..he can hack it! In fact, Hackett returns 88 TDs while Carter returns 49. Not to mention, this safety unit picked off the opposing QB 11 times last year. That’s right, the Frogs return 11 INTs at the safety position!

TEXAS
I’m going out on a limb here and calling for the Texas Longhorns to shock the nation and win the BIG-12!! Texas is the most talented team in this league by far and it starts with the defense. Every starter on this defense was recruited as a 4 star recruit or higher, every starter, YEA…….that’s all 11! In fact the defense boasts 9 former four star recruits, and 2 former 5 star recruits. This is the most talent Charlie Strong has had on a defense since he guided the Gators to a Natty in 2008, he’ll have them ready! This defensive unit returns 8 starters from a year ago, an astonishing 640 tackles, and 22 sacks! It starts up front where the Longhorns return 3 out of 4 starters including the hawg molly DT Malcolm Brown, and his 68 tackles. The linebacker core comes back strong returning all 3 starters! This unit ranked 2nd in my production rankings and 1st in my talent indicator! Steve Edmund leads the linbacking unit with 73 returning tackles. The cornerback unit returns 1 out of 2 starters but the lone returner, Quandre Diggs, is as good as they come! The safety position is a little questionable due to the departure of Adrian Phillips, but Mykkele Thompson at the SS spot will add a lot of pop to the back end! With Charlie Strong coaching this talented group this will be the best defense in the BIG-12!

The offense is somewhat questionable. However, the two most important factors that I analyze when scouting a team’s offense is the offensive line and the running-back position. Texas has the #1 offensive line in my production and talent rankings and the RB unit can claim the same title! In fact, Texas returns the most rushing yards out of the BIG-12 with 1,836 combined yards returning! The wide receiver position is a question mark with the loss of Mike Davis, and the dismissal of Kendall Sanders. David Ash will be the starter at QB when the Longhorns kick it off and if he stays healthy he should be solid enough to lead the offense. The offense will struggle early but the defense will keep this team in the game.

The Longhorns will be back in the middle of the college football elite come this fall! Bevo will be running wild and the burnt orange will start a new era of defensive dominance! The schedule isn’t easy, by no means, but the Horns get Baylor and TCU at home and the toughest away games are at Texas Tech and Kansas State. For all you Sooner fans out there, get ready to feel hard times because The Horns are back! Hell, Texas beat the brakes off the Sooners last year with Slack Brown leading the charge! Charlie Strong bench presses 7 tons and doesn’t take shit! Prediction: 10-2 Regular Season! BIG-12 CHAMPS!!

OKLAHOMA
The Oklahoma Sooners come in second in the BIG-12 this season. I am never one to buy into a team’s previous bowl win as a kick starter to the next season and this season is no different! The defense will be outstanding as they return 9 out of 11 starters, well…..8 starters now that LB Frank Shannon is out for the season. Losing Shannon deals a huge blow to this defense as he was the returning tackler from a year ago. The defensive front will be one of the best in the league as they return all 4 starters, 132 tackles, and 15.5 sacks! The linebacker core will be solid but the loss of Frank Shannon cannot be overstated. Shannon is the leader of this defense and his loss hurts. The cornerback unit returns 1 out of the 2 starters from a year ago and should be solid once again. The safety unit is anchored by one of the best in the land, Quentin Hayes. The loss of free safety, Gabe Lynn, will hurt but not tremendously. Overall this defense should be good but they will feel the pain of losing Shannon. The unit will be down slightly from last year’s numbers.

The offense is led by returning QB Trevor Knight. Knight showed glimpses of greatness last year, especially in the Sugar Bowl, but the consistency has yet to be proven. The RB unit takes a hit with the loss of last year’s leading rusher, Brennan Clay. Clay racked up nearly 1,000 yards last year and his loss will be noticeable. The WR unit takes a huge hit with the departure of one of the team’s biggest leaders, Jalen Saunders. Sterling Shepherd must now take over the leadership role for the receiving core as he is the lone returner. The offensive line should be similar to last year as they only have to replace two starters. However, there isn’t much talent on the offensive line. In fact, the Sooners only have 3 offensive linemen on the entire roster that were recruited as a 4 star recruit or higher. This offense will be similar to last year’s unit, and possibly stronger if Trevor Knight can play with some consistency.

The good news is that the Sooners will only have one loss at the end of the season. The bad news is….the one loss will come to the Longhorns in the Red River Shootout! The weapons that this team loses on the offensive side of the ball as well as the loss of Shannon will hurt this squad tremendously. I have the Sooners losing one game, but that game will be to Texas! Texas will lose two games but one of the losses will be to PAC-12 foe UCLA, Texas will win the tie-breaker and Oklahoma misses out on the BIG-12! Prediction: 11-1 Regular Season!

BAYLOR
Baylor loses a ton of production on both sides of the ball and that’s the reason I don’t have them nearly as high as other analysts across the country. The defensive unit only returns 4 starters from a year ago. The defensive front should be one of the strong points of this young defense as they return 2 out of 4 starters, but the loss of DE Chris McCallister will hurt. The linebacker core will be down this season after the departure of last year’s leading tackler, Eddie Lackey. Bryce Hager will lead the linebacking core at the MLB position and he is as solid as they come, but this unit loses 2 out of 3 and will be down. Both cornerbacks from last year are gone along with 68 tackles and 3 INTs. The safety unit doesn’t fare much better but does return one starter from a year ago. However, the loss of Ahmad Dixon at the FS spot and his 81 tackles hurts this pass defense tremendously! This defense loses loads of talent and production and will struggle mightily this season.

The good news about the offense is that they return starting QB Bryce Petty and leading receiver Antwann Goodley. The bad news is…..that’s all this unit returns. Baylor loses leading rusher Lache Seastrunk and his 1,177 yards. The offensive line is depleted as they only return 2 starters from a year ago. To make matters worse, the Bears only have one offensive lineman on the roster that was recruited as a 4 star recruit or higher. The receiving core and the QB unit are great and if they can get some protection and some production on the ground they could match last year’s numbers, but those are huge IF’S.

The loss of production on both sides of the ball will be too much to overcome for the Baylor Bears. Art Briles is one of the best coaches in the country but he won’t be able to match last year’s totals, or compete for the BIG-12 this year! Prediction: 8 wins regular season!

WEST VIRGINIA
I have The West Virginia Mountaineers coming in fourth in the BIG-12 this season. WVU returns 8 starters on a defense that underachieved last year. The front line is the only question mark on this defense as they lose 2 out of 3 starters. The loss of Will Clarke up front will hurt this defense in the early going. The linebacker core returns all 4 starters, 241 tackles, 3 INTS, and 6 sacks. This is a very good linebacker unit and should be able to rack up tackles all season long! The cornerbacks are the best in the BIG-12 as they return 122 tackles, and 3 INTs. This cornerback unit scored 1st in my production metrics and 2nd in my talent indicator, giving them the best unit in the league. The safety unit will be down slightly after the loss of Darwin Cook. However, the free safety, Karl Joseph is one of the best in the league. WVUs great cornerback unit will help these safeties out tremendously and that’s why I’m not over-worried about the loss of Cook.

The offense, led by high octane head coach Dana Holgerson, should score early and often. This unit returns 7 starters and should be much better than last year. The loss of leading rusher Charles Sims and his 1,095 yards will hurt, but this offense uses a running-back by committee and returns nearly 800 yards on the ground. Clint Trickett will return as the starting QB and his experience should prove valuable in this fast paced offense. Both starting receivers return to the fold and should provide Trickett will a plethora of options. The tight-end, Kevin White, is one of the best in the league and he returns over 500 yards, and 5 TDs. White should provide a solid safety blanket for Trickett all season long! The offensive-line returns 2 out of 5 starters and the best one out of the bunch, Quinton Spain! It should take 3 to 4 games for this offensive unit to really start gelling, but once they do…..watch out!

The EERS should take a step in the right direction this season and finish within the top 4 of the BIG-12. I like the fact that the offense is starting to gain experience in Holgerson’s scheme and the defense returns a lot of production! The schedule is pretty brutal as they open up against Alabama in the Georgia Dome, and draw away games at Texas and Texas Tech. Prediciton: 7-5 Regular Season!

TCU
The Texas Christian Horned Frogs come in 5th in my annual BIG-12 Preseason rankings. The biggest reason the Horned Frogs finish 5th is because of their solid defense. This unit returns 8 starters from a year ago and should be one of the better units in the league. The defensive front returns 2 out of 4 starters and should be just as solid as they were a year ago. The linebacker core is one of the best in the BIG-12 as they return all 3 starters including the leading tackler from a year ago, Paul Dawson. The cornerback unit will be down slightly after the departure of All-Conference CB Jason Verrett. However, the other corner, Kevin White, brings back 3 INTs to this unit. The safeties are the best in the BIG-12 and maybe the entire country as they return both starters, 185 tackles, and an astonishing 11 INTs! Needless to say, opposing offenses will find it very difficult to move the ball through the air against this defense.

The offensive unit returns 6 starters from a year ago and should be better than last year. They lose Casey Pachall from the QB unit but Trevone Boykin has plenty of starts under his belt and the production from this unit shouldn’t dip. B.J Catalone returns as the leading rusher and this running back by committee unit returns 1,144 yards and 14 TDs. The receiving unit returns 1 out of 2 starters but this unit returns a lot of production off of the bench. The offensive line only has to replace one starter from a year ago and should be one of the best units in the league. This offense should be better than last year’s unit!

TCU should be better than this year. The Horned Frogs will look really good on defense, especially pass defense. The offense should be better than last year, and if the chips fall right, TCU could produce a couple big upsets. The schedule isn’t too bad as they draw Oklahoma at home and have to travel to Texas late in the season. Prediction: 7-5 Regular Season!

TEXAS TECH
Texas Tech comes in 6th in my BIG-12 rankings. The Texas Tech defense loses a ton of production from last year’s team and this is the main reason that I don’t have the Red Raiders higher. The defensive front line returns 2 out of 3 starters but they lose their best lineman in DE Kerry Hyder. The linebacker core was dealt a huge blow with the departure of leading tackler, Will Smith, and his 120 tackles. The LB unit returns two starters but replacing Smith will be a challenge. Both cornerbacks are gone and this unit will struggle against the pass happy teams of this league early and often. The safety unit does return 1 out of 2 starters but loses 76 tackles and 3 INTs. This defense will struggle all season long.

Texas Tech’s offense is fun to watch and this year shouldn’t be any different. It starts up front where the Red Raiders return 4 out of 5 starters and 3 of the starters were recruited as 4 star recruits. The offensive line ranked 2nd in my production and talent indicator rankings and should be one of the best in the league. The starting QB will be Davis Webb and he returns over 2,700 yards and 20 TDs. The Red Raiders use a stable of running backs to carry the load so the loss of leading rusher, Kenny Williams, shouldn’t factor into the production this season. Although the receiving core loses its leading receiver, Eric Ward, they return over 2100 yards through the air. The loss of TE Jace Amaro will hurt this offense tremendously as he contributed over 1352 yards and 7 TDs last year, replacing him will be a challenge.

Texas Tech will put a good offense on the field. The challenge for this team will come on the defensive side of the ball where the loss of production will hurt this team tremendously. The schedule plays out fairly nice as they draw Oklahoma and Texas at home. However, the defense will hurt this team and cost them more than a couple games. Prediction: 6-6 Regular Season!

KANSAS STATE
The Kansas State Wildcats come in 7th in the BIG-12 Rankings this year. Kansas State returns 6 starters on the defensive side of the football. The defensive front will be the best unit on this defense as they return 3 out of 4 starters and 142 tackles. DE Ryan Mueller will be one of the best pass rushers in the BIG-12 as he returns 11.5 sacks from last year. The linbacking core will be down as they lose 2 starters from a year ago including leading tackler Blake Slaughter. The cornerback unit returns 1 starter but the loss of Ty Zimmerman and his 74 tackles and 3 INTs will hurt this pass defense. The safety unit returns one starter but should be down from a year ago as well after losing ALL-Conference SS Kip Daily.

The Wildcat offense returns 7 starters from a year ago and should improve. The offensive line returns 3 starters but the right side is depleted after losing the RT and RG from a year ago. Jake Waters returns as the starting QB and brings nearly 2,500 yards and 18 TDs with him. Tyler Lockett returns as the leading receiver and should be one of the best receivers in the league this year. The loss of leading rusher, John Hubert, will hurt this offense as they don’t have a whole lot of talent at this position. Overall, the return of Waters and Lockett as well as a solid offensive line should make this offense better than last year.

Bill Snyder is as solid as they come and always produces a good product. However, the defense loses a ton of production and should be down from last year. The offense will keep this team in the game but the defense will cost them some wins. Prediction: 5-7 Regular Season!

OKLAHOMA STATE
Oklahoma State loses 28 seniors from a year ago and loads of talent and production! The defensive unit only returns 4 starters from a year ago and this unit finished dead last in my CSR rankings! The front line loses 2 out of 4 starters and should be the lone bright spot on this defense. It should be noted that this front line does have a DE named Jimmy Bean and that automatically gives them a couple points. The linebacker core returns 1 starter and loses last year’s leading tackler, Caleb Lavey. The cornerback unit will be down significantly after losing top 10 draft pick Justin Gilbert and his 7 INTs. The safety unit loses both starters from a year ago including Daytowian Lowe and his 87 tackles. This defense will give up points all year long, expect opposing offenses to score!

Just like the defensive side of the ball, the offense only returns 4 starters as well. The offensive line is depleted as 3 starters from a year ago are gone. The talent on the offensive line is lacking too as the Cowboys do not have a single starter that was recruited as a 4 star recruit or higher. The starting QB from last year, Clint Chelf, is gone as well. The new QB, J.W. Walsh does have some experience under his belt but losing Chelf will hurt. The Cowboys return some good production at the WR position but also lose a lot of production with the departures of Charlie Moore and Josh Stewart. The tight-end position is depleted as Tracy Moore and his 738 yards and 6 TDs are gone. The Cowboys do return the leading rusher from last year in Desmond Roland.

This team will take a step back after the loss of so much experience. Gundy will put a good offense on the field but the loss of so much production on each side of the ball will be too much to overcome. Expect this year to be an anomaly due to the way everyone departed. Cowboys will be down! Prediction: 5-7 Regular Season!

KANSAS
The Kansas Jayhawks are my 9th place team in the BIG-12. The Jayhawks could upset some tems and prove me wrong, mainly because of their defense. The defensive unit returns 9 starters from a year ago. The front line will be down as they lost the only 2 departures on this unit. The linebacker unit will be one of the best in the league as they return all 4 starters, and an astonishing 329 tackles. Both starting cornerbacks from a year ago are back and should provide a good pass defense all season long. The safety unit is also one of the best in the league as both starters from a year ago return and bring 141 tackles and 5 INTs with them. This defense should be taken seriously by all teams in the BIG-12 this season!

As good as the Jayhawk defense will be the offense will be equally bad! The offensive unit only returns 5 starters from a year ago. The offensive line only returns 2 starters from last year and doesn’t boast much talent either. The tight-end position is solid, as Jimmay Mundine returns with 229 yards and 5 TDs under his belt. James Sims, the leading rusher from last year is gone as well as is his 1100 yards rushing. The Jayhawks will have a new playcaller under center as last year’s starter, Jake Heaps, is gone. Both starting WR will be back but they didn’t put up much production a year ago. This offense will struggle!

Kansas could pull some upsets if they get their offense going. The defense is a serious unit and everyone in the BIG-12 should bring their A game on offense if they expect to pull out a “W”. Kansas will scare a lot of teams this year but their offense will hold them back. Prediction: 4-8 Regular Season!

IOWA STATE
Iowa State rounds out my annual BIG-12 rankings. The Cyclones will struggle on defense this year as they only return 5 starters. The front line returns 2 out of 4 starters and should be similar to last year’s unit. The linebacker unit takes a huge hit after losing the leading tackler from a season ago, Jeremiah George. The cornerback unit returns 1 out of 2 starters but should be similar to last year as there isn’t a lot of lost production from this unit. The safety unit is depleted after losing both starters including all-stud Jacques Washington and his 119 tackles. This unit will be down.

Iowa States offense should improve this year as they return 7 starters and a lot of production from last season. The starting QB, Sam Richardson, returns and should benefit from being the lone starter this year. The Cyclones return a stable of running backs and should be very good on the ground. Just like the RB position the WR unit returns a stable of talent and production from last season. The offensive line is the big question mark as this unit only returns 2 starters from last year. The state of Iowa is known for producing outstanding offensive lineman, and this unit will have to reload fast.

Iowa State will be your typical Cyclone team this year, they’ll scare a lot of teams because they come to play every week but they’ll still fall towards the bottom of the league. Prediction: 3-9 Regular Season.